New footage raises likelihood the US struck an Iranian school where a blast killed at least 165

JERUSALEM (AP) — New footage shows what an expert investigative group says is likely an American Tomahawk missile hitting a compound in southern Iran, meters from the school where a deadly unclaimed blast killed over 165 people at the start of the war raging in the Mideast.

It comes as mounting evidence points to US culpability for the Feb. 28 strike, which hit a school adjacent to a Revolutionary Guard base in Minab, Iran, in the country’s southern Hormozgan Province. Experts interviewed by The Associated Press, citing satellite image analysis, say the school was probably struck amid a quick succession of bombs dropped on the compound.

A US official familiar with internal deliberations on the matter has told the AP that the strike was likely American. The official spoke anonymously because they were not authorised to comment publicly on the sensitive matter.

The new footage, first analyzed by the investigative group Bellingcat, was taken the day the school was struck but circulated Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency. It shows a missile hitting a building, sending a dark plume of smoke into the air.

The AP was able to geolocate the video and determine it was taken from a site adjacent to the school, while smoke was already rising from the school vicinity. Satellite imagery of the compound is consistent with visual identifiers found in the video, including a flat-roofed building, power lines and vehicles.

Trevor Ball, a Bellingcat researcher, identified the munition as a Tomahawk cruise missile — which only the US is known to possess in this war. It’s the first evidence of a munition used in the strike.

US Central Command has acknowledged using Tomahawk missiles in this war and even released a photo of the USS Spruance, part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group located within range of the school, firing a Tomahawk missile on Feb. 28.

Bellingcat said the footage “appears to contradict” US President Donald Trump’s claim over the weekend that Iran was responsible for the deadly school blast.

When asked about the strike at a press conference Monday, Trump claimed that Iran has access to the Tomahawk cruise missile, which is made by American defense contractor Raytheon. While the company sells the missile to allied countries like Japan and Australia, there is no evidence to suggest that Iran has acquired it.

Trump argued that the cruise missile is “sold and used by other countries” and that Iran “also has some Tomahawks.”

“Whether it’s Iran or somebody else ... a Tomahawk is very generic,” he said.

When asked why he was the only person in his administration making the claim, Trump said, “Because I just don’t know enough about it.” He added that “whatever the report shows, I’m willing to live with that report.”

On Saturday, Trump also was asked by a reporter whether the US was responsible for the blast. Without providing evidence, he responded, “No, in my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” Trump added that Iran is “very inaccurate” with its munitions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth quickly chimed in to say the US was investigating.

Neither the US military’s Central Command nor the Israeli military immediately replied to requests for comment Monday.

Several other factors point to a US strike.

One is the launching of an assessment of the incident by the US military. According to the Pentagon’s instructions on processes for mitigating civilian harm, an assessment is launched after a group of investigators make an initial determination that the US military may bear culpability.

Another is the location of the school — next to the Revolutionary Guard base and close to barracks for a naval unit. The US military has focused on naval targets and acknowledged strikes in the province, including one in the vicinity of the school. Israel, which has denied conducting the strike, has focused on areas of Iran closer to Israel and hasn’t reported any strikes south of Isfahan, 800 kilometers (500 miles) away.

Complicating any assessment of the incident is the lack of images of bomb fragments from the blast. No independent agency has reached the site during the war to investigate.

Janina Dill, an expert on international law at Oxford University, wrote on X that even if the strike was a misidentification — and the attacker believed that the school had been a part of the neighbouring IRGC base — it would still be “a very serious violation of international law.”

“Attackers are under an obligation to do everything feasible to verify the status of targeted object,” she wrote.

The Trump administration, however, strikes a different tone on international humanitarian law.

Speaking about the US operation at a press conference March 2, Hegseth said: “America, regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history.”

“No stupid rules of engagement,” he said. “No politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don’t waste time or lives.”